Chile continues to suffer from extreme and severe weather, dealing successive blows to the world’s largest copper producer. Against this backdrop, an avalanche struck Chile’s state-owned Codelco’s large El Teniente copper mine, killing two workers.

The state-owned mining company said in a statement that two subcontractor employees were conducting inspection work in the mine’s open-pit area, were initially reported missing, and were found dead on Sunday.

Amador Pantojas, the head of the mine’s union, said the open pit remained shut down on Monday, but the rest of the El Teniente mine, including the massive underground mining system and the concentrator plant, was operating normally. The open pit accounts for less than 10% of the mine’s total output.

The fatal accident is another consequence of the extreme weather that Chile has repeatedly experienced in recent months, which has continuously disrupted mine production and infrastructure. Heavy rain and storms have already caused copper output to decline, and floods and mudslides have also brought damage to the capital, Santiago.

Before this avalanche of mixed ice, snow, rock and mud, the El Teniente open pit had already been shut down due to severe weather. Officers of the Investigative Police (PDI) and prosecutors have arrived at the site to investigate the circumstances of the accident.

Minister of Economy and Mining Daniel Mas said in a statement: “The lives and personal safety of workers are a non-negotiable bottom line and must take priority over any production targets and continuous operation needs.”

Weather-related production interruptions, combined with various operational failures, safety accidents and declining ore grades, continue to drag down Chile’s copper output. Labour disputes are also exacerbating supply risks: workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine are on strike, and a pay dispute has also broken out at BHP’s Escondida copper mine.

As multiple negative factors converge, the copper market is facing tight mine supply, trade disruptions and growing demand. Last month copper prices soared to a record high of nearly US$15,000 per tonne, and some analysts expect copper prices to continue rising. Copper futures rose as much as 1% intraday on Monday.

El Teniente is Codelco’s largest mine. In July 2025, a rockburst accident occurred there, killing six workers and interrupting production. Earlier this month, a worker died at the Santiago-based mining company’s Radomiro Tomic mine; just over a week earlier, a fatal accident also occurred at the Escondida copper mine.

Amid these successive fatal accidents, Codelco has long been mired in low output, which is one of the reasons for the decline in Chile’s national copper production. The previous management tried to restore output; the new management led by Chairman Bernardo Fontaine plans to stabilize output at current levels, prioritizing value over production scale.

An El Niño phenomenon is developing, and in the coming months South American copper mines will face more risks, with Chile’s and Peru’s core producing regions likely to see heavier rainfall and flooding. The recent series of production interruptions has already demonstrated these potential risks in advance.

Summary of fatal accidents

1. 2025-07-31 | El Teniente (Codelco’s largest mine) rockburst accident
   Accident type: rockburst (earthquake-induced, magnitude Mw 4.3), sudden collapse of rock mass in underground stope
   Casualties: 6 workers killed (including subcontractor personnel), 9 injured; Chile declared three days of national mourning China News Service
   Impact: underground operations across the mine were fully suspended, with phased resumption; directly caused a sharp decline in El Teniente output, with the mine’s production significantly reduced in 2025 and Q1 2026 output still down 26% year-on-year; Codelco set up an international expert committee to conduct an independent investigation and comprehensively review deficiencies in the in-situ stress monitoring system CODELCO
   Key conclusions: the energy and complexity of the rockburst were unprecedented in the past 35 years; the original support design could not withstand it, and there were no obvious warning signs beforehand.
2. 2026-10-01 | Radomiro Tomic conveyor steel structure collapse accident
   Accident type: sudden collapse of steel structure supports in the ore processing / material conveying area while workers were carrying out inspection and maintenance
   Casualties: 1 worker killed
   Impact: the crushing and material conveying section where the accident occurred was shut down, and the rest of the mine operated under restrictions; regulator Sernageomin attended the site to investigate Infobae
3. 2026-10-11 | El Teniente open pit ice, snow, rock and mudflow (avalanche) accident Accident type: avalanche of mixed snow, rock and mud (climate disaster); the open pit had already been shut down due to severe weather before the accident Casualties: 2 subcontractor inspection employees killed, confirmed dead after being reported missing Impact: the open pit remains shut down; underground mining and the concentrator plant maintain normal production; the open pit accounts for less than 10% of the mine’s total output, so direct output loss is limited; prosecutors and Investigative Police gathered evidence at the site. Background: Chile continues to experience heavy rain and strong storms; an El Niño climate event is developing, and flood and landslide risks in Chile’s and Peru’s core copper mining areas will rise in the future.

Summary of common features of the accidents

1. Personnel structure: in many of the accidents the victims were subcontractor employees, a weak link in Codelco’s safety management.
2. Two types of risk overlap
   Geological: deep mine in-situ stress and rockburst risk (El Teniente 2025.7), inherent geological hazards of hard-rock deep mines, difficult to warn against;
   Climate: heavy rain, ice/snow mudflows / avalanches (El Teniente 2026.10), with El Niño amplifying climate disaster risks for South American mines.
3. Production impact
   2025 rockburst: large impact, long shutdown period, continuously dragging down Codelco’s overall output;
   Two accidents in 2026: localized shutdowns, limited direct production loss, but regulatory safety reviews and shutdown risks have increased, and market uncertainty over Chilean copper mine supply has risen, supporting copper prices.
4. Company level: Codelco has long faced declining ore grades and persistently low output; the new management (Chairman Bernardo Fontaine) has shifted strategy: no longer forcibly pursuing production scale, prioritizing value and safety. But safety accidents continue to break out intensively, triggering multiple pressures from public opinion, regulators and unions.
   Key market impact points
   Chile is the world’s largest copper producer. Successive safety accidents + extreme weather disruptions, combined with the strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela and the labour dispute at BHP’s Escondida, are jointly pushing up expectations of tight global copper mine supply; last month copper prices hit a record high of nearly US$15,000 per tonne, and after news of this avalanche, copper futures rose as much as 1% in a single day.

Risk outlook
As El Niño continues, climate disaster risks such as heavy rainfall, mudslides and avalanches in central and northern Chilean mining areas will rise in the coming months; at the same time, inherent safety hazards such as deep mine rockbursts, underground structures and conveyor system equipment failures will persist, and the regulator Sernageomin may at any time require temporary shutdowns for verification, so supply disruption risks will continue to exist.